That's right. Despite the fact that Boston (25-11) playing over its head (+73 run differential) and is bound to have a 2-10 or so stretch, they're 14 games over .500 right now and the Yankees (17-19) are two below. Hell, the Yankees are 1.5 games worse than the Seattle Mariners.
I do this despite the fact that the Sox have had many mid-to-late-season swoons, and that the Yanks have outscored their opponents, 200-175, so there's gotta be more wins coming up. Also, I make this call while disregarding that it's very possible the Yanks have played their worst ball and Boston has played its best, and things will reverse (thus evening out the teams by September).
But I can't shake the feeling, and though I think the team is still a wild-card favorite, I have to step out onto a limb. I'd love to be wrong. Here's a compelling opposing argument.
WasWatching did some of this math a couple days ago, but look at the numbers. If Boston, say, wins 95 games, the Yankees would have to go 79-48. Not impossible, right? It would be easier if that's all they had to do. Instead, they also need the Red Sox to play just 70-56 the rest of the way. In other words, be as much above .500 in almost four times the number of games as they have been thus far.
Here's the good news -- the American League is shakier than last year, and the Yanks figure to battle someone from the AL Central (Cleveland/Detroit, most likely, but Chicago or Minny could make a run) or Oakland/Anaheim out west. Even with their awful start, the Yanks are but 4.5 games back of the wild card.
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