Afternoon Baseball

Jim Rice...Original post and complete player list
We dismissed the pretenders and spelled out the contenders. Here, we analyze each with a mix of stats and baseball POV from a dedicated fan.
Jim Rice, OF/DH, Boston (1974-1989)
This year: If not him, then no one.
Deserving: For the first time, I'm saying yes.
Will writers think he's deserving?: The steroids thing should help him, as well as time's distance from his supposedly surly demeanor.
Stay on ballot: Yes.
Veteran's Committee: He'll eventually get in. The question, I think at this point, is when and how.

Jim Rice hit 378 home runs in a 14-year stretch. He hit .298/.352/.502 for his career with 8 100-RBI seasons, and a three-year stretch where his worst numbers (cherry-picked) were: 201 hits, 39 HR, 114 RBI, 104 R, .315/.370/.596.
He led the league in total bases 4 times, HR thrice, RBI and slugging twice, and OPS, OPS+, triples, runs created, hits and times on base once each.
Basically, the argument at this stage, in my mind, comes down to whether you think Orlando Cepeda was a Hall of Famer. Compared to Cepeda, Rice has 298 more at-bats, 101 more hits, 3 more home runs, 86 more RBI, a BA/OBP/SLG line of 1/2/3 points higher, although Cepeda has 44 more doubles and an OPS+ that's 5 points better.
I think Cepeda is a marginal pick, but Rice is better. For a different argument in favor of Rice, follow the link on this post.

I'm not making this suggestion on the mere fact that Cepeda is in the Hall of Fame. It's a foolish thing to say that just because there are lesser players enshrined that someone else should also make it. Let's not repeat mistakes past. However, I don't think Cepeda is a terrible pick, and Rice was just as good -- and more importantly, considered (and largely correctly) as the best player on his team and league for a good 12 years. Cepeda, arguably, was the 2nd- or 3rd-best player on his team in San Francisco (Mays, McCovey), St. Louis (Brock,) Atlanta (Aaron, Rico Carty in 1970).

Let me qualify my endorsement of Rice. To fall apart at age 34 is not endearing to the Hall of Fame. Nor should it be. A slow decline? Yes. But out of baseball at 36 without disease or catastrophic injury? I would say that Rice is the benchmark for future mid-30s flameouts. You had to be better than him -- if not in dominance, which has grown tougher with the two rounds of expansion since Rice retired -- than in sheer numbers. Anything short of that, and you'll be the Al Rosen of your day.

Labels: HOF