Afternoon Baseball

Tommy John...Original post and complete player list
We dismissed the pretenders and spelled out the contenders. Here, we analyze each with a mix of stats and baseball POV from a dedicated fan.
Tommy John, SP, Cleveland (1963-1964), Chicago (1965-1971), Los Angeles (NL) (1972-1978), New York (AL) (1979-1982, 1986-1989), California (1982-1985), Oakland (1985)
This year: Just maybe.
Deserving: I don't know. Love the wins, the ERA is solid, but he never led the league in anything.
Will writers think he's deserving?: Outside shot.
Stay on ballot: Yes.
Veteran's Committee: Very possibly, especially if there's a long stretch without a 300-game winner.

Tommy John is known more for the surgery which has completely changed the game of baseball, and athletics in general. No Mariano Rivera, no late-career John Smoltz, no Eric Gagne (a couple times over), no Tom Gordon, Pat Hentgen, and many more.
But as a pitcher, he was pretty damn good, and extrordinarily durable and resilient. His 700 starts are the 6th-most in baseball history, and he played for 26 damn seasons. To show how long he was around, Tommy John's last year was Ken Griffey Jr.'s first year. John had been in the league 10 years before Griffey's father started playing.

So does John have the numbers? Here's the good: 3.34 career ERA with an ERA+ of 111 (not great, but good considering those 7 years he played past 40 really hurt him). 288 wins, 3 20-win seasons (all after the surgery), 46 shutouts (thrice leading the league), a 6-3, 2.65 postseason mark.
The bad numbers? More hits than innings, a 162-game average of only 13 wins, never leading the league in a major category, and an abysmal K/9 ratio.
If I can't let Blyleven and Kaat in, then I can't let Tommy John in. Blyleven, for the beating I gave him, probably has the best overall stats of the bunch.
Here's my thing: If we lower the bar for guys who just happened to play so long that they had to have big win numbers, will we keep doing this? Will suddenly, a guy who wins 225, or 250 wins put pressure on voters to let him in because "the game's changed" and guys can't win 300 anymore? This doesn't exclude the Randy Johnsons, the Pedro Martinezes, the guys who were dominant. It's about the David Wells, the Mike Mussinas, maybe the Andy Pettittes.

Think of it this way: Does the name Tom Glavine strike you as instant Hall of Famer? For many of you, it won't. But with 2 Cy Youngs, 5 20-win seasons (leading the league each time), 275 wins and a 120 ERA+, he is indisputably a better pitcher than any one on the ballot this year. He's a Hall of Famer, no matter how much he'll regret throwing away the chance for 300 wins by joining the Mets. I think he's the standard for the guys who make their case largely on longevity. Tommy John doesn't match up, sadly.

Labels: HOF