Afternoon Baseball

Dale Murphy...Original post and complete player list
We dismissed the pretenders and spelled out the contenders. Here, we analyze each with a mix of stats and baseball POV from a dedicated fan.
Dale Murphy, OF, Atlanta (1976-1990), Philadelphia (1990-1992), Colorado (1993)
This year: Doubtful.
Deserving: Not to me, but I wouldn't disparage a yes vote.
Will writers think he's deserving?: Outside shot.
Stay on ballot: Yes.
Veteran's Committee: One would think he'd have a good shot, especially if his peers start to get on the committee.

Dale Murphy is the quintessential example of the players who have to contend with heightened expectations from the post-1993 era. He debuted in a year where the league slugged .384 (and the AL had one man, Reggie Jackson, above .500) and left in a year where that slugging percentage was .447 and the OPS 102 points higher than the previous season. Two players slugged 50 HRs in his entire career (the underrated, but not HOF-worthy George Foster and Cecil Fielder). This feat has happened 17 times since 1995.
So let's be fair to Murph. Let's stand him up against his peers and see how he fared in his day. 1 30-30 season, 2 MVPs, 4 Silver Sluggers, 5 Gold Gloves, 7 All-Star games. An average of 31 HR and 93 RBI in the 1980s. A league leader in HR (twice), RBI (twice), runs (once), slugging (twice), OPS (once), runs created (four times), power/speed (once), as well as not missing a game for over four consecutive years.
The downside? How can someone hit 30 homers six times and not hit 400 over an 18-year career? Murph was also never great after age 31, and useless after age 35. Even Jim Rice looks like he didn't slip by comparison.

As great as Dale Murphy was in the 1980s, we're still looking at a guy in the top 50 of no statistic save strikeouts (12th). We're looking at a .265/.346/.469 line, a guy who homered less than 1 in 20 at-bats, only 1266 RBI, and a guy whose best numbers after his age 31 season were .252/.318/.421 -- all from different seasons.
A great fielder, perhaps the most durable outfielder ever in his prime (save Billy Williams and maybe Hideki Matsui), and a tremendous hitter and player from 1979-1987. But is 9 great years and little else enough?

Let's not compare him to Duke Snider, either, as the 400-HR guy who fell apart young. Snider was better in his prime, and even in his part-time, supposedly terrible years after the move to Los Angeles, hit .300 twice and slugged over .500 four times in six years. He had an OPS+ under 113 in that stretch only in his final season. Murphy, however, was never over 105 after 1987, and was below league average in four of his final six seasons, with an astonishing -1 OPS+ in his 42 at-bats with Colorado in 1993.

I can understand a vote for Murphy. He may indeed be worthy when using some other statistical measures that I'm too lazy to find. But Murphy was simply not great for long enough, in my opinion. Not only that, he wasn't even average for long enough.

Labels: HOF