Afternoon Baseball

Andre Dawson...Original post and complete player list
We dismissed the pretenders and spelled out the contenders. Here, we analyze each with a mix of stats and baseball POV from a dedicated fan.
Andre Dawson, OF, Montreal (1976-1986), Chicago (NL) (1987-1992), Boston (1993-1994), Florida (1995-1996).
This year: Maybe.
Deserving: No, unless you place a premium on Gold Gloves and defense in general.
Will writers think he's deserving?: Possibly. He won an MVP for a terrible club, after all.
Stay on ballot: Yes.
Veteran's Committee: Depends on the steroids legacy. It may make guys from his era looks saintly, or it may blow over to the point that people just think his generation sucked.

"Hawk" had some terrible luck. Playing on Montreal, although in the decent years, then being on the Cubbies (although they made a NLCS), then a Red Sox team during two down years, leaving right before the 1995 playoff year to play out the string on the Marlins, retiring just before the World Series year.
Let's go big-picture first. Decent HR total (438, with 49, 32, 31 being his highs and the 49 being the best of the '80s), 1591 RBIs, 314 SBs, .806 OPS with 119 OPS+ (Derek Jeter is a 121, for cryin' out loud), 8 Gold Gloves, ROY and MVP with 2 2nds, 6th all-time in Power/Speed.

A mixed record. He was more of a Stan Musial HR hitter than even an Ernie Banks, to use a Cubbie. He was a top-line fielder, baserunner and run producer, but his OPS+ is pedestrian and was only at 127 in his MVP season. He never led the league in a major category outside of HR and RBI in 1987, and his .323 OBP is not HOF-worthy.
The final nail in the coffin (or, at least, my final nail) might be the player to whom Baseball-Reference says he's most similar to: Cubbie Billy Williams, a HOFer. Williams had slightly fewer HR and RBI (in 577 fewer at-bats), but had 5 30-HR seasons, a .361 OBP and .853 OPS and a 132 OPS+. I'll take Williams as a HOFer, but doing so means clipping the Hawk's wings. Haha, what a joke.

As an aside, it doesn't help that my personal viewing experience of Dawson is largely with the Red Sox. But I genuinely thought he was better than this before I researched it. Alas.

EDIT: I may have been a bit hasty in slamming Dawson. His defense does carry a lot of weight. But I still think as an offensive force, we're overrating him -- he doesn't match up to lots of players from more potent eras, yet even amongst his own era, he was nowhere near dominant save his 1987 campaign.

Labels: HOF