Afternoon Baseball

Common-sense ruminations on baseball and culture.


To begin, I think both are good acquisitions simply by the influx of talent they bring, but Delgado is a safe pick and a relative financial bargain. Wagner is neither.
Carlos Delgado is a premier first baseman...

Carlos Delgado is a premier first baseman in a game that has lost nearly all of its depth at what used to be the loaded position. Frank Thomas, Rafael Palmiero, Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, Jason Giambi, Tino Martinez, and Eric Karros are all question marks at best or diminished aged men at worst. Mo Vaughn, Mark McGwire and Andres Galaragga are retired.
That leaves Mark Teixeira, Albert Pujols and Todd Helton. The Mets can't get any of the other three, so Delgado truly is the best option. Though next year will be his age 34 season, he's shown no signs of decline, and the switch to the National League actually produced one of his better all-around seasons. He's generally durable and is a player who does much more than belt home runs, although he already has 369 of those.

To see what his age 34-36 seasons might be like, Baseball-Reference lists the 10 most similar players at age 33. Only two are Hall of Famers, but Rocky Colavito is the only one on the list without a legitimate argument.

McCovey had 6 straight 30-HR seasons through age 33. He never had another, although his OPS+ did not drop off from age 34-36. Albert Belle is second, but he never played a game after his age 33 season.

That leaves, in the truly similar players, Fred McGriff, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas and Jim Thome. McGriff had a weak age 34 season, but averaged 30 HR and 100 RBI from age 35-38, hitting .300 twice. Bagwell declined slightly, but still was dangerous and productive even through injuries. Thomas has lost his hitting-for-average ability, but has remained powerful and productive when healthy. Which is less and less often. Thome, of course, just had his age 34 season. Again, though, injuries played a major role.

So basically, as long as Delgado can stay healthy, he will vindicate the Mets' hopes. And given his history, there's few first basemen of any ability whom you can argue are less likely to suffer injury. Check-plus to the Mets.

Part two here...

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