Afternoon Baseball

Common-sense ruminations on baseball and culture.


Carlos Beltran has displayed top 10 player in baseball, really top 5 (Pujols, Bonds, Rolen, Sheffield, Beltran is a decent sample off the top of my head, if we go with complete players) in the last two months. Along with Clemens, Oswalt, and Lidge, he has been absolutely on fire in the Astros' 37-10 (7-0) finish to the regular season and run to Game 7 of the NLCS tonight.
But this is the first time in his career that he has truly been on this level. His best seasons prior were on the level of Bernie Williams' best 4-5 seasons--excellent, but not HOF-worthy by any means. The question is, which Beltran is the real Beltran for the next 5-10 years? And should the Yankees spend $100 million on him?

1. He should be able to handle the pressure in NYC. Granted, Houston isn't cutthroat, but he's lived up to a pennant race and hit home runs in 5 consecutive postseason games. He can handle pressure.
2. Even if he hits .290-.305 with 25 HR, 100 RBI, 100R, 20-30 SB, and good defense, which would arguably be a let-down for the Yanks, he will be providing an immeasurable improvement in CF and be a steady bat. This Yanks team, with the exceptions of Matsui and Sheffield, lacked any type of consistency, and its Jekyll and Hyde tendencies loomed large in the ALCS. Beltran can be that consistency, if the fans let him. Leading into...
3. He doesn't have to be the savior. Jeter, A-Rod, Sheff, etc. already fill that role.
4. Other teams want him. This isn't the case of vastly overpaying for Sheff or Lofton when no one else had genuine interest. Or signing Giambi because everyone knew Tino was done and they were backed into a corner: sign Giambi or have no first base production for 2-3 years. Beltran will be the most coveted free agent of the last couple years, even more than Guerrero, and even if his acquisition is merely a pipe dream for most teams.

But his signing brings its own difficulties. One, he may stay with Houston, even though it is an aging franchise on borrowed time. The Red Sox could always make a play for him, as could the Mets, Dodgers or Orioles. Also, while Bernie Williams seems as if he would move to DH (maybe try to learn 1B??), with Giambi and Lofton still on the books, it creates a logjam of aging and diminishing players. The worst way for Beltran to begin his career in NY would be to push Bernie out the door. Also, Sheff loves to bitch about contracts, and signing Beltran for substantially more is sure to offend a man who has an outside chance at winning AL MVP.
Most importantly, for at least the 2nd year in a row, the Yankees and especially their fans could get too caught up in offense and not enough in getting some freaking pitching.

Getting Beltran is a smart idea for the Yankees, and possibily a necessary or destined decision. But he should not be considered the answer, but merely a replacement part.

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